Welcome to this edition of What about Ukraine?, a newsletter that helps you keep updated about what has been said recently about Ukraine in Ukraine, and in the international media.

Peace is a hope probably shared by people of goodwill for Ukraine. But one cannot talk about peace without answering the question about exactly what kind of peace is necessary, and under what conditions. What would this bring for Ukraine and for the security of Europe? While some of the European press, experts and politicians are calling for negotiations, others are highlighting the risks of an "illusory" or "temporary" peace, or even a peace equivalent to "the capitulation of Ukraine". In both Italy and Germany, there are intense political debates about whether negotiations can bring a fair peace. 

Across Europe, views equating Ukraine's capitulation with peace face strong criticism. A much-criticised view is the Hungarian government's demand for peace, which many interpret as a call for Ukraine's surrender. 

The threat of a capitulation peace deal is also felt in Ukraine: "It is doubtful that, at the peak of their offensive, the Kremlin is ready to start negotiating with Kyiv about anything other than our capitulation," says Ukrainian author and servicemen Pavlo Kazarin in an opinion column, translated by n-ost this week.

This is a key argument used by Western policy-makers and opinion formers who advocate stronger support for Ukraine. According to Spain's leading newspaper El País, allies should bolster support for Kyiv, as Russia "will never engage in peace negotiations", if Ukraine is left vulnerable. 

In contrast, Italian diplomat Giampiero Massolo calls negotiations "the only path" forward in Il Corriere. He argues that Western countries have little possibility on the military level without risking escalation. According to a Bulgarian analyst, however, escalation will push the parties towards negotiation. The Italian Il Foglio also considers that it was Kyiv’s attacks on the Russian infrastructure that have prompted discussions about a partial ceasefire, pointing towards de-escalation, instead of escalation.

And now, Donald Trump's victory in the US elections will open up new questions in the peace-debates.

Have a good read!

Kornelia Kiss
Editor of this week's edition

Sixty-three percent of Ukrainians claim that they are ready to endure the war as long as necessary. This is a result of a new opinion poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in autumn this year. And this is the first time since March 2022, that this number had dropped below 73 percent. At the same time, this was the first time over this period when the number of Ukrainians whose answer was 'don’t know' grew dramatically from four to 12 percent.

The discussion about the best scenario for Ukraine to end this war is hot inside the country and becomes a part of a bigger geopolitical game during this autumn, which is full of important elections. In the meantime the Russian army is conducting one of the most powerful offensives of the full-fledged war, according to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Russia is also launching increasingly intensive air attacks against the whole Ukraine, launching 2,023 Shahed drones only during the month of October 2024.

In an opinion column, translated by n-ost this week, author and servicemen Pavlo Kazarin gives a disappointing diagnosis on both Ukrainian authorities and society, including military and civilians. He suggests a sober view on peaceful negotiations, if they were held at this stage of the war, and concludes:

"Intriguingly, the Russians defined their priorities long ago. They shifted their country onto a war footing and adapted the economy for a long-term fight. They are focused on making the war in the format of 'either us or them' and do everything possible to prevent Ukrainians from thinking about the war in such categories. Therefore, it is worth reminding. We must do one simple thing for the war to end in our favour. We must not stop shooting."

This piece was originally published by Ukrayinska Pravda, one of the most read Ukrainian independent online-media.

Translated by Olesia Storozhuk.

Italy

Concerns are voiced about a wider conflict

"The only path is negotiation" titles an editorial in Il Corriere. Giampiero Massolo, diplomat and president of publicly owned company the Fincantieri group, writes that since Russia is slowly gaining an advantage, Western countries have little possibility on the military level without risking escalation. The war to the bitter end, Massolo states, has huge costs in terms of public opinion, budgets and weapon arsenals in Western countries. "Territories in return for truce" is "the clear objective", says the author, who considers a ceasefire on the current geographical positions a desirable solution. He adds that pushing for NATO membership for Ukraine risks a direct conflict with Russia. (Corriere)

Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries proved that targeting the enemy’s infrastructure can lead to de-escalation rather than a wider conflict, Il Foglio states. The paper claims that Kyiv’s attacks have prompted discussions about a partial ceasefire. (Il Foglio) Russian president Vladimir Putin has never been open to negotiations, says political analyst Nona Mikhelidze to Fanpage, as the Russian budget law 2025-2027 demonstrates that the country is ready to finance the invasion to the bitter end. Mikhelidze recalled that Russia has gained 0.1 percent of Ukraine in nine months while Kyiv seized a larger part of the Russian Kursk oblast in two weeks. This suggests, argues the analyst, that if the West "provides weapons on a regular basis" and allows long-range missiles, "the Ukrainians may regain their occupied territories" and obtain a fair peace. (Fanpage)

What does a 'fair peace' mean? The concept has been invoked by many, such as president Volodymyr Zelensky, yet opinions differ on its meaning, a piece in Il Manifesto states. According to the author, real and lasting peace should not be temporary or the "law of the fittest", and risks an unfair outcome or future instability, but it requires mutual commitments and adherence to international standards. (Il Manifesto)

Spain

Peace negotiations slip under the radar 

An El País editorial, 'Winning Peace in Ukraine', highlights the West's inconsistency in discussing peace while limiting aid. According to Spain's leading newspaper, allies should bolster economic and military support for Kyiv, as Russia will never "engage in peace negotiations" if Ukraine is left vulnerable. The article argues that this support is "not only a moral obligation to stand by the attacked and uphold international law but also essential to Europe’s interest in preventing Putin from achieving his aims on the European Union's eastern border". (El País)

Amid Zelensky’s announcement of a victory plan and Ukraine’s recent losses in Donetsk, Política Exterior assesses the past months of the Russian invasion, suggesting it’s "unlikely" that Western support will be enough to push the Kremlin to negotiate. Given this outlook, the authors propose NATO membership for Ukraine, with a guarantee of sovereignty in exchange for temporarily ceding the occupied territories — a scenario that, they admit, seemed unthinkable a year ago. (Política Exterior)

"If Ukraine is not strengthened now, Putin will use any pause (…) to attack again," argues Serhii Pohoreltsev, Ukraine's ambassador to Spain, in an opinion column in El Español. The diplomat addresses a question that often arises in the Spanish public discourse: are we facing an even longer war? He suggests that bolstering Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, along with an invitation to join NATO, could finally get Russia to come to the negotiating table in good faith. (El Español)

Germany 

Could ceasefire and negotiations bring a fair peace?

German Bundestag vice president Katrin Göring-Eckardt (from the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen party) identifies the German discourse promoting "illusory peace" for Ukraine, instead of a "fair peace", in a guest contribution in Welt. Göring-Eckardt condemns recent proposals by three eastern German state premiers (discussed in Newsletter #51) calling for "a ceasefire and negotiations" with Russia and stating that this wouldn’t bring "secure life in freedom and self-determination" for the people of Ukraine. She calls for Germany to strengthen military, financial, and reconstruction aid for Ukraine, allowing the use of Western arms on Russian military targets and potential NATO and EU integration, emphasising that lasting peace for Ukraine is vital for European security. (Welt)

In response to chancellor Olaf Scholz’s dismissal of Ukraine’s call for NATO membership (discussed in Newsletter #52), British historian Timothy Garton Ash, in a Zeit column, draws parallels between Cold War-era Germany and Ukraine. He argues that NATO membership is essential for Ukraine’s future security, much like it was for West Germany. "Germany was divided because Germany started the war. Ukraine would be divided because Russia started the war," he states, underscoring the moral double standard. NATO membership enabled West Germany’s security and later reunification, and is now crucial for Ukraine to avoid becoming a "divided, demoralised state" and provide Ukraine with the "decisive security" for stability, investment and reconstruction — a "west German solution", Garton Ash says. (Zeit)

"The old peace movement is dead, a new one is needed," says taz about protests at the peace demonstrations held on German Unity Day, 3 October. According to the German daily, demonstrators were divided in their opinions, and accused many participants  of perceiving peace as equivalent to "the capitulation of Ukraine." The author claims that even though the war "brings death and destruction every day" protesters who see the capitulation of Ukraine as an opportunity for peace, are not peace advocates but back the occupier, aligning with what some call "Putin’s German bargain basement." (Taz)

Bulgaria

Ukraine and Russia "going to negotiations through escalation"

"What is happening now between Ukraine and Russia can be defined as 'going to negotiations through escalation'," says Lyubomir Kyuchukov, director of the Institute for Economics and International Relations in Sofia, in an interview by Bloomberg Bulgaria. However, for Kyuchukov, new military technologies in the field and North Korea's entry into the conflict make the prospect of peace negotiations less clear. According to the expert, several of Kyiv's Western partners seem to be pushing Ukraine towards negotiations, but the most important one, the USA, will clarify its position after the presidential elections. (Bloomberg Bulgaria)

Ukraine and Russia are reportedly negotiating to stop attacks on their respective energy infrastructure, through the active intermediation of Qatar. The news, first circulated in the Financial Times, was picked up in Bulgaria by Club Z. According to the Bulgarian newspaper an agreement remains unlikely, even if the attacks have actually decreased in recent weeks. On the one hand, secret agreements in this delicate sector have reportedly been reached and then violated in the past. On the other hand, Russian president Putin would not be willing to make official agreements while the Ukrainian army is still occupying the Kursk region. (Club Z)

Turkey, a major power in the Black Sea area, is insisting on peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. According to OFFNews, Ankara is trying to relaunch negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow, which already took place in Istanbul in the past, albeit with no results. For Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, "the risk of an expansion of the conflict is more real than ever, and could lead to the use of weapons of mass destruction". Turkey reiterated its support for the territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine, but added that to achieve peace, Moscow must be involved in the process. (OFFNews)

Hungary

Could the war end as the Hungarian government suggests?

Since the Russian full-scale invasion in 2022, Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán has consistently called for a ceasefire and negotiations and opposed arms transfers, arguing that they would lead to escalation. The weekly hvg questions the government's peace demands, arguing that neither side has an interest in ending the war as long as both see a chance for their own victory. "A war is over when the two sides have the same perception of the realities of the battlefield and the chances of victory resulting from them," the article says. (Hvg) 

Viktor Orbán's peace demands face criticism for being biased in favour of the invader. According to security policy analyst András Rácz, Orbán’s peace narrative "serves the interests of the aggressor". An immediate ceasefire "would give Moscow the opportunity to stabilise its control over the occupied territories while replenishing its badly battered military forces". In addition, a ceasefire would reduce the support from the West, which, according to the expert, would give Russia the opportunity to attack a weakened Ukraine again in a few years. (444.hu)

Ukraine’s Western allies have not yet decided what they would consider a final success in Russia’s war against Ukraine, but without a clear objective, "all efforts will be in vain" according to Index. The newspaper, considered close to the government, argues that in this case the war will continue for a long time, and it will not end in a way that is in the interests of the West. "The survival of a stable and sovereign Ukraine is a question of political will... Putin shows more will to turn Ukraine into a vassal or a failed state than the United States and Europe show to support Ukraine's survival as a sovereign state," says the article. (Index)

The Europe-Ukraine Desk curated this newsletter. This week's edition has been composed by our team from all over Europe: Marika Ikonomu, Kornelia Kiss, Katarina Kukla, Oksana Mamchenkova, Francesco Martino, Antonina Rybka and Fermin Torrano.
Michael Bird was our proofreader. 

If you like this content, please spread the word, so that anyone interested in Ukraine can benefit from this weekly curation.

Have you spotted an interesting piece of journalism you think should be mentioned in What about Ukraine? Please let us know at about.ua@n-ost.org! Same if you have an idea how to improve this newsletter. 

See you next week!